Autumn Budget 2026: What's Confirmed, What's Speculation
Most Budget previews blur the two together. This one doesn't — because knowing which is which is the difference between planning and guessing.
The earliest UK Budget since 2021, and the first under a new Chancellor and Prime Minister. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its forecast the same day. Nothing below labelled speculation is policy.
The short answer
The Autumn Budget will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October 2026. No tax rates or thresholds have been announced for it. Most of what affects your 2026/27 position was decided at the previous Budget and is already law — dividend rates rose two percentage points in April, Business Asset Disposal Relief is now 18%, and income tax thresholds stay frozen to April 2031. Rises to the headline rates of income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance have effectively been ruled out by a recommitted manifesto pledge. What remains genuinely open is dividends, savings, pensions and capital gains — and none of it is confirmed.
There is a particular problem with Autumn Budget coverage, and it gets worse every year. Firms publish long previews that mix three different things together: measures already passed into law, measures being speculated about in the press, and measures that have been explicitly ruled out. Read quickly and they all look the same.
That distinction matters, because you can act on the first category today. You cannot act on the second, and acting on it anyway is how people make expensive decisions for no reason.
So this piece labels everything.
We Track Every HMRC and Treasury Change As It Lands
Draft legislation, Treasury announcements, HMRC guidance and commencement dates — monitored as they're published, so the changes that affect your business reach you before the deadline, not after it.
What's Already Law for 2026/27
This is the part worth your attention. It is already affecting your tax bill, and none of it depends on what the Autumn Budget contains. Several of these changes took effect in April and many owner-directors still haven't re-modelled around them.
| Measure | Position for 2026/27 | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend tax rates | 10.75% ordinary · 35.75% upper · 39.35% additional. The first two rose by two percentage points from 6 April 2026. | Already law |
| Dividend allowance | £500 | Already law |
| Business Asset Disposal Relief | 18%, having risen in April 2026 | Already law |
| Capital Gains Tax | 18% within the unused basic-rate band, 24% above it. Annual exempt amount £3,000. | Already law |
| Income tax thresholds | Frozen to April 2031. Personal allowance £12,570, higher-rate threshold £50,270. | Already law |
| Cash ISA limit | Falling to £12,000 for under-65s from April 2027, down from £20,000 | Already law |
| VAT on electricity bills | Removed from 1 October 2026 | Already law |
Frozen Thresholds Are a Tax Rise Without a Rate Rise
This is the measure people consistently underestimate. With the higher-rate threshold held at £50,270 until 2031, ordinary pay increases push more of your income into the 40% band every year. No rate changes, no announcement, no headline — the bill simply goes up. For owner-directors taking a salary and dividend mix, this quietly reshapes what the optimal split looks like from one year to the next.
What's Effectively Off the Table
The government has recommitted to its 2024 manifesto pledge, which means increases to the headline rates of income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance are not expected for the rest of this Parliament.
That commitment is the single most useful thing to understand about the Autumn Budget 2026, because it shapes everything else. If the Treasury needs revenue and the three largest levers are unavailable, the money has to come from somewhere narrower. Which is precisely why the speculation clusters where it does.
What's Genuinely Open
Everything in this section is speculation. It is being discussed by commentators and tax professionals; none of it is government policy, and some of it will not happen. It is here so you know where to pay attention on the day, not so you can act on it now.
Dividend taxation
Sits outside the manifesto pledge, which makes it a frequently mentioned target. Rates already rose in April, and the £500 allowance is widely discussed as exposed.
Now: 10.75% / 35.75% / 39.35%Capital Gains Tax
Commentary focuses on the annual exempt amount and on the gap between CGT rates and income tax rates, rather than on a single dramatic increase.
Now: 18% / 24%, £3,000 exemptPension reliefs
Perennially reviewed because of the cost to the Treasury. Caps on salary-sacrifice National Insurance relief and the tax-free lump sum are the two most often floated.
Now: unchangedSavings and property income
Both fall outside the protected rates, and both are mentioned in most pre-Budget commentary. Nothing specific has been briefed.
Now: unchangedDon't Restructure on a Rumour
Every pre-Budget cycle produces businesses that bring forward a disposal, rush a dividend, or restructure ownership on the strength of a newspaper story — and then find the measure never arrives. The transaction costs are real, the tax saving was imaginary, and it cannot be undone. If a transaction was already under consideration on its own merits, reviewing the timing is sensible. Creating one purely because of speculation is not.
What You Can Actually Do Before 28 October
All of these relate to rules already in force. None of them depends on what the Autumn Budget announces.
Re-model Your Salary and Dividend Split
Dividend rates rose two percentage points in April. If your split was set before that, it is probably no longer optimal. This is the single most common thing owner-directors have not revisited.
Use This Year's CGT Exemption
The £3,000 annual exempt amount does not carry forward. If it goes unused, it is gone. Where a disposal was planned anyway, spreading it across two tax years can be worth modelling.
Review Pension Contributions Under Current Rules
Pension relief remains one of the most effective allowances available today. Using this year's annual allowance is rarely a decision anyone regrets, whatever happens on the day.
Check Your Position Against the Frozen Thresholds
If pay rises have pushed you toward £50,270, the marginal cost of the next pound is higher than you may assume. Worth knowing before you plan next year's remuneration.
Bring Forward Anything Already Planned
Not because of speculation — because a decision reviewed calmly in September is a better decision than one made in a rush on 29 October.
This Page Updates on Budget Day
On 28 October we'll replace the speculation above with what was actually announced, and what it means for UK small businesses and owner-directors. Same page — bookmark it rather than searching again.
Frequently Asked Questions
The Budget Itself
When is the Autumn Budget 2026?
Wednesday 28 October 2026. The date was confirmed on 31 July 2026, making it the earliest UK Budget since October 2021. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its economic and fiscal forecast the same day.
Will income tax, VAT or National Insurance rates go up?
Increases to the headline rates of income tax, VAT and employee National Insurance are not expected. The government has recommitted to its 2024 manifesto pledge covering the rest of this Parliament. Note that frozen thresholds still raise real tax bills without any rate changing.
What has already changed for 2026/27?
Quite a lot, and most of it came from the previous Budget rather than this one. Dividend ordinary and upper rates rose two percentage points from 6 April 2026 to 10.75% and 35.75%. Business Asset Disposal Relief rose to 18%. Income tax thresholds remain frozen to April 2031. VAT on electricity bills is removed from 1 October 2026.
Planning and Current Rates
Should I bring forward a disposal or dividend before the Budget?
Only if the transaction was already under consideration on its own merits. Reviewing the timing of a planned transaction is sensible. Creating a transaction purely because of speculation is not, and the costs are real even when the predicted measure never arrives.
What are the current dividend tax rates?
For 2026/27: 10.75% at the ordinary rate, 35.75% at the upper rate and 39.35% at the additional rate, with a £500 dividend allowance. The ordinary and upper rates each rose by two percentage points from 6 April 2026.
What is the Capital Gains Tax annual exempt amount?
£3,000 for 2026/27. Gains within it are tax-free; above it the rate is 18% to the extent gains fall within the unused basic-rate band and 24% above that. The exemption does not carry forward to the following year.
How Accounting Crunchers Can Help
A pre-Autumn Budget review is not about predicting announcements. It is about making sure the rules that already apply are being used properly — which, for most owner-managed businesses, is where the recoverable money actually sits.
Salary and Dividend Modelling
Your split re-modelled at current rates, not the ones that applied before April.
Allowance and Relief Review
CGT exemption, pension allowance and reliefs checked before the year end closes them off.
Timing of Planned Transactions
Disposals, restructures and distributions reviewed on their merits, not on rumour.
Post-Budget Impact Assessment
What was announced, applied to your specific position, in the days after 28 October.
We support businesses across the UK, US, UAE and Canada — from sole traders to multi-entity groups. Read more in our 2026 UK and US tax planning guide, or see how we handle annual compliance.
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Sources: HM Treasury Budget date confirmation (31 July 2026); Office for Budget Responsibility; HMRC published rates and allowances for 2026/27.
Current as at August 2026. Items labelled speculation are commentary, not government policy, and may not be announced. This article is general information and not tax advice specific to your circumstances.